US energy chief expresses optimism on Iran talks, boosting ceasefire odds. Ceasefire by April 30 at 37.5% YES.

Trump accused Iran of ceasefire violations and threatened attacks. Lifting the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by April ...

Israel and the US are in direct warfare with Iran since February 28. Military action by Israel against Iran by April 21 at ...

UK Chief Rabbi warns of rising antisemitic attacks linked to Iranian proxies. Israel military action against Iran by April 21 ...

Iran has reportedly agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile. The market for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium ...

US deploys sea drones for mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. Transit of 80 ships by April 30 now at 27% YES.

UK declares a critical maritime threat level for the Gulf. UK warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 at 10% YES.

USS Gerald Ford returns to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran. US escorts of commercial ships through Hormuz by ...

Trump threatens Iran's infrastructure, causing odds for military operations ending by April 21 to drop to 8.5% YES.

Iran rejects US talks, causing market declines. Peace deal by April 22 at 19.5% YES, April 30 at 39% YES, and uranium ...

Trump claims the US-Iran deal concept is done, pushing odds that no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by June 30 ...

Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Iran ceasefire expired without a deal. Ceasefire by April 30 at 37.5% YES.